Residential Econometrics

Friday, January 20, 2006

My December 2005 Existing Home Sales Prediction

Next week on 1/25, the NAR will release its estimate of Dec'05 existing home sales. Based on the numbers we have here, I'm going to predict that only 5.0 to 5.8 million homes changed hands. Our data suggests we have 67% confidence that NAR's actual number will hit within that range.

Just in: Housing Starts Are Down 8.9%

This is a strong indicator that builders are taking their chips off the table. Since December home starts would generally hit the market during a hot buying season (late summer 06), this is a significant display of builder's lack of confidence in a continued robust housing market.

Students ask me all the time where they can find secondary research materials. I find myself most-often referring them here:

National Association of Home Builders

Census.gov

National Multi-Housing Council

Torto Wheaton

EBSCO/Academic Search Premier

For fun: WSJ Real Estate Journal